Dakhla Atlantic Green Hub
Green ammonia as the volume product, biogenic methanol as the margin product. The only site in the portfolio that earns a certificate premium and clears the lender floor without an offtake price floor.
Three advantages that no other site holds together.
A measured 47 percent wind capacity factor in the Alizé trade-wind regime. Seawater cooling at 17 to 22°C, far below the 32 to 35°C of Red Sea alternatives, which is a direct CAPEX advantage on the electrolyser. And the shortest Atlantic sea line to Rotterdam, four days direct with zero chokepoint exposure.
On their own, each is matched somewhere else in the portfolio. Together, only at Dakhla, and only Dakhla adds a local biogenic CO₂ source large enough to carry a methanol slice at the RFNBO certificate premium. That premium is why it leads every financial measure in the set.
Local biogenic carbon. Nothing imported.
The methanol slice uses local biogenic CO₂ from regional bioethanol, fish-processing and organic-waste streams. The biogenic fraction is held as a hard process constraint, not a commercial preference, because it is what qualifies the fuel under the EU RFNBO pathway. The ammonia portion is carbon-free, drawing nitrogen from an on-site air separation unit.
The biogenic certificate value is the single most valuable line in the revenue stack and the single most fragile. The methanol slice is what makes Dakhla bankable without a price floor, so securing firm, long-term biogenic CO₂ supply at volume is the project's critical path, not a commercial afterthought. The figures below stress that premium at 0, 50 and 100 percent.
| Green methanol output | 500 kT/yr |
| Green ammonia output | 150 kT/yr |
| Gross hydrogen | 126 kT/yr |
| Wind installed (47% CF) | 1,623 MW |
| Solar installed (28% CF) | 1,467 MW |
| Electrolyser (PEM) | 1,030 MW |
| Process water to electrolyser | 1,325 kT/yr |
| net of methanol-synthesis recycle | 1,156 kT/yr |
| Desalination (SWRO) duty | 179 m³/h |
| seawater intake at 42% recovery | 429 m³/h |
| CO₂ to gate (incl. loss) | 708 kT/yr |
| of which biogenic (65%) | 460 kT/yr |
| Wind (1,623 MW) | $2,191M |
| Solar (1,467 MW) | $1,320M |
| Electrolysis (1,030 MW) | $1,030M |
| Methanol + ammonia + ASU | $825M |
| Carbon chain (fleet, hub, terminal) | $383M |
| Battery, desal, port, transmission | $556M |
| Owner's cost + contingency | $1,261M |
| Total CAPEX | $7,566M |
| Methanol, ex-premium | $615M |
| Biogenic certificate premium | $42M |
| Ammonia | $113M |
| Oxygen (upside only, excluded from base) | n/a |
| Total revenue | $770M |
| Fixed O&M (4% of CAPEX) | ($303M) |
| CO₂, shipping, port, water | ($96M) |
| EBITDA (48% margin) | $371M |
The operating problem the project does not have is margin. A 48 percent EBITDA margin is healthy. The binding constraint is capital structure: a $7.57B first-of-kind build cannot be serviced from $371M of EBITDA at ordinary commercial gearing.
A financeable stack exists, solved on the bottom-up model rather than asserted. The base case clears the 1.20x lender floor at about a 10 percent grant; reaching the 1.35x coverage that development-finance committees prefer takes the grant to roughly 15 percent, with debt near 40 percent and the balance equity. The structure holds only while the biogenic premium is secured. Strip it and coverage falls to 1.07x, below the floor, so the package depends on contracting the premium through an H2Global or EU Hydrogen Bank mechanism rather than assuming the merchant certificate holds. That is the work between screening and FID.
This page describes the Phase 1 build at 500 kT methanol and 150 kT ammonia ($7.57B). The portfolio comparison shows Dakhla on the smaller standardised screening block (420 kT total product, $5.32B) so it sits on one basis with every other site. The two figures are the same 1.03 GW (1,030 MW) electrolyser at two duty levels, not two plants. The screening block is the low-oversizing unit every site is measured on; the build pairs that same electrolyser with 3,090 MW of wind and solar, three times its nameplate, which raises its full-load hours and carries output from 420 kT to 650 kT. Same electrolyser, more load hours, more product. Figures are screening estimates at approximately ±25 percent. Oxygen by-product revenue is treated as upside only; no merchant buyer is contracted at Dakhla.
| Premium captured | Premium revenue | EBITDA | Min DSCR | Against the 1.20x floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% · base case | $42M | $371M | 1.21x | Clears |
| 50% captured | $21M | $350M | 1.14x | Below floor |
| 0% · merchant certificate lost | $0M | $329M | 1.07x | Below floor |
The structure is held constant across all three rows, about a 10 percent grant, 40 percent senior debt and the balance equity, so only premium capture moves and coverage scales with cash available for debt service. The reading is that the premium is not headroom. Lose half of it and the package already sits under the lender floor, which is why it has to be contracted through an H2Global or EU Hydrogen Bank mechanism rather than left to the merchant certificate market. The screening-basis coverage on the portfolio page sits on the smaller standardised block and is not directly comparable to this build figure.